{
  "metadata": {
    "referenceYear": 2024,
    "date": "2026-10-04",
    "description": "Selected saved calibration results for the public empirical overview. Conditional simulations anchored in observed production and price data; not estimates of causal effects. Percent changes use each model’s own positive baseline. Missing or non-admitted comparisons remain null.",
    "sourceFiles": {
      "staticOriginal": "global_calibration_extension/results/synthesis/a1_central_comparisons.csv",
      "staticRebuilt": "global_calibration_extension/results/synthesis/b1_central_comparisons.csv",
      "villageOriginal": "global_calibration_extension/results/a2/allocations.csv",
      "villageRebuilt": "consolidated calibration/results/c2/allocations.csv",
      "dynamic": "global_calibration_extension/results/synthesis/dynamic_central_comparison.csv"
    }
  },
  "static": [
    {
      "mineral": "gold",
      "original": -0.008876135243877719,
      "registeredMaterial": -57.763958387374295,
      "muir": -0.00665690393786753,
      "vcg": -0.006656697974456338
    },
    {
      "mineral": "cobalt",
      "original": -0.5055885689159743,
      "registeredMaterial": -55.754640970359624,
      "muir": -0.37915948157055984,
      "vcg": -0.37914832500648094
    },
    {
      "mineral": "tantalum",
      "original": -0.13540967853269414,
      "registeredMaterial": -56.95861310658802,
      "muir": -0.10155448378822429,
      "vcg": -0.10155132205686979
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    {
      "mineral": "tin",
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      "registeredMaterial": -56.960889989676446,
      "muir": -0.10128093745990221,
      "vcg": -0.10127778431985315
    },
    {
      "mineral": "tungsten",
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      "registeredMaterial": -56.97944502778266,
      "muir": -0.09905282205148191,
      "vcg": -0.09904973886970536
    }
  ],
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      "policyOutput": 0.31862500000000005,
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      "profitChangePercent": -0.885164443963919
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      "policyOutput": 0.3186,
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      "profitChangePercent": -0.8850895340197685
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      "model": "rebuiltVcg",
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      "policyOutput": 0.0,
      "outputChangePercent": null,
      "baselineProfit": 0.0,
      "policyProfit": 0.0,
      "profitChangePercent": null
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    },
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      "mineral": "cobalt",
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    },
    {
      "mineral": "tantalum",
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      "combined": {
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      "mineral": "tin",
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    {
      "mineral": "tungsten",
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  "provenance": {
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        "global_calibration_extension/results/synthesis/a1_central_comparisons.csv",
        "global_calibration_extension/results/synthesis/b1_central_comparisons.csv"
      ],
      "selection": "All five core minerals. Original: eta=1, outside_multiplier=1, screening; common-curvature, x0=0.8, mine-only gold/single-metal others; unknown share=0.5 except original gold observed-transport anchor. Rebuilt: eta1_unknown0.5_retail0.25, screening versus baseline, no withholding.",
      "assumptions": [
        "Policy-set late discovery probability rises from 25% to 50%; this is not the total endogenous detection rate. Outside spending is unchanged.",
        "Production-cost curvature eta=1 is matched across the displayed models; this parameter controls how extraction costs respond to output.",
        "The rebuilt static examples direct 25% through a separate retail channel, so their smaller response partly reflects market routing. Other trading, ownership and technology assumptions differ; the contrast is not a pure method effect.",
        "original, muir and vcg are percentage changes in extraction by the potentially exposed production group, not total mining. That group is a model stratum, not an observed illegal-production share.",
        "registeredMaterial is the original-model percentage change in potentially exposed material admitted to the monitored channel (live_candidate), not all registered production.",
        "Every percent change is 100 × (policy − baseline) / own baseline. Original absolute extraction is tonnes; rebuilt absolute extraction is normalized world production."
      ],
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          "mineral": "tungsten",
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        {
          "mineral": "tungsten",
          "model": "muir",
          "quantityUnit": "normalized_world_production",
          "baselineOutput": 0.5,
          "policyOutput": 0.4995047358897426,
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          "totalMiningChangePercent": -0.010635540093706375,
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        {
          "mineral": "tungsten",
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          "quantityUnit": "normalized_world_production",
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      ]
    },
    "village": {
      "files": [
        "global_calibration_extension/results/a2/allocations.csv",
        "consolidated calibration/results/c2/allocations.csv"
      ],
      "selection": "Hypothetical base village; all three selling, interface and subsistence features enabled; buyer-charge parameter 0 to 0.1. Original Muir retention=zero. Rebuilt mechanisms withholding=0.",
      "assumptions": [
        "This is a normalized hypothetical village, not a country estimate or a mineral-specific empirical fit.",
        "q is extraction in normalized mineral units; gate_profit (original) and profit (rebuilt) are intermediary profit in normalized monetary units. Absolute scales cannot be interpreted as real tonnes or currency.",
        "Charge=0.1 is a model charge parameter, not a claim that all income or all production is taxed at ten percent.",
        "The original and rebuilt Muir examples retain positive extraction at the same level, while intermediary profit falls.",
        "The rebuilt VCG village is inactive at baseline and after the charge: zero output and profit in both cases. Percentage changes are undefined and therefore null, not zero percent."
      ]
    },
    "dynamic": {
      "files": [
        "global_calibration_extension/results/synthesis/dynamic_central_comparison.csv",
        "global_calibration_extension/results/a3/paired_summaries.csv",
        "consolidated calibration/results/c3/ledger.csv"
      ],
      "selection": "Exactly the journal central comparison: period=100, eta=1 for original, segmented markets, supported research, active government, original gold observed_transport and other original minerals unknown_share0.5. Rebuilt T120 central: unknown_share0.5, retail_share0.25, capture1, success0.25, reach0.25, tax0.30, attempt_cost0.25, protection0.40, legal_services0.01, reference_growth, candidate_retail_relative0.01.",
      "assumptions": [
        "Period 100 is a model date, not a forecast year or a statement about 100 calendar years.",
        "Screening raises policy-set late discovery from 25% to 50%. The combined package also gradually reduces outside-buyer spending toward 25% below baseline; research and government decisions respond within each scenario.",
        "The larger combined reductions cannot be attributed to certification or government action alone.",
        "All results are percent changes in potentially exposed extraction against each model’s own baseline at the same date.",
        "The two model families differ in ownership, demand growth, technology and institutional specification. Their differences are not isolated causal effects of Muir versus VCG.",
        "Original tantalum has no admitted central comparison for screening or combined; rebuilt VCG tungsten combined is also unavailable. Null values must be displayed as unavailable.",
        "Rebuilt results have the stated finite-horizon scope; no general infinite-horizon continuation is claimed."
      ],
      "values": [
        {
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          "policySource": "global_calibration_extension/results/a3/paths/cobalt__unknown_share0.5__1.0__segmented__supported__True__screening.json.gz"
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          "policySource": "consolidated calibration/results/c3/individual/cobalt_Muir_supported_gov_segmented_screening_T120_capture1_reference_growth_dirtyretail0.01.json"
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